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Between 2010 and 2020, the number of women working in India will drop from 26% to 19%, according to data compiled by the World Bank. As infections increase, a bad situation worsens: economists in Mumbai estimate that female employment will drop to 9% by 2022.

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For years, Sanchuri Bhuniya struggled with her parents to settle down. She wants to travel and earn money – not to be a housewife.

So in 2019, Bhuniya came out of a remote village in eastern India. He took a train hundreds of miles south to the city of Bengaluru and found work in a garment factory earning $120 a month. Work set him free. «I ran away,» he said. «It’s the only way I can go.»

This life of financial freedom ended with the arrival of Covid-19. In 2020, Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared a national lockdown to prevent infections, closing almost all businesses. In a few weeks, more than 100 million Indians lost their jobs, including Bhuniya, who was forced to return to his country and never found a stable employer.

As the world emerges from the pandemic, economists warn of a troubling data point: Failure to restore jobs for women — who are less likely than men to return to the workforce — could shave trillions of dollars from global economic growth. The prognosis is particularly bleak in developing countries like India, where female labor force participation has declined so much that it is now in the same league as war-torn Yemen.

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This week’s episode of The Pay Check podcast explores how the coronavirus is accelerating an already worrying trend in the world’s second most populous country. Between 2010 and 2020, the number of women working in India will drop from 26% to 19%, according to data compiled by the World Bank. As infections increase, a bad situation worsens: economists in Mumbai estimate that female employment will drop to 9% by 2022.

«In India, women’s labor force participation has declined so much that it is now in the same league as war-torn Yemen.»

This is unfortunate news for India’s economy, which started to slow down before the pandemic. Modi has prioritized job creation, pushing the country to strive for amrit kaal, the golden age of growth. But his administration has made little progress in improving the prospects of working women. That’s especially true in rural areas, where more than two-thirds of India’s 1.3 billion people live, where traditional conservative governments and labor have been evaporating for years. Despite our nation’s rapid economic expansion, women have struggled to make the transition to work in urban centers.

Closing the employment gap between men and women – a whopping 58 percentage points – could expand India’s GDP by almost a third by 2050. This equates to almost $6 trillion in terms of constant US dollars, according to the latest analysis by Bloomberg Economics. Doing nothing threatens to derail the country in its efforts to become a competitive producer for the global market. Although women in India represent 48% of the population, they contribute only about 17% of GDP compared to 40% in China.

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India is an extreme illustration of a global phenomenon. Worldwide, women are more likely than men to lose their jobs during the pandemic, and the recovery has been slower. Policy changes that address gender disparities and increase the number of women in the workforce—greater access to education, childcare, or flexible work arrangements, for example—help add $20 trillion to global GDP by 2050, according to Bloomberg Economics.

For workers like Bhuniya, 23, the pandemic has had dire consequences. After losing his job, he struggled to afford food in Bangalore and eventually returned to a remote village, Patrapali, in the state of Odisha. Bhuniya didn’t think he would get another chance to leave. She no longer earns a stable income, but her family worries about her safety as a single woman living in a distant city.

«If I run away again, my mother will curse me,» said Bhuniya. «Now, there is nothing left. My account is empty and there is little work in the country.

The story echoes across India. During the pandemic, Rosa Abraham, an economics professor at Azim Premji University in Bengaluru, tracked more than 20,000 people as they navigated the job market. He found that after the first pregnancy, women are several times more likely to lose their job than men and are more likely not to regain their job after the ban is lifted.

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Increased housework, a lack of after-school childcare options, and an increase in marriage—which often limits women’s autonomy in India—help explain the disparity in outcomes.

«When men face an economic shock like this, then they have the option to bounce back,» Abraham said. «They can navigate to different types of work. But for women, there is no such fallback option. They cannot negotiate the labor market as effectively as men.

Dreams of freedom or well-paid office jobs are being replaced by so-called «distress-driven jobs,» essentially unpaid work on the family farm or taking care of the home. Before the pandemic, Indian women did about 10 times more work than men, about three times the global average.

«It’s an unfortunate situation that the decision to work is often not in the hands of the woman herself,» said Abraham.

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The decline in labor force participation is partly about culture. As Indians became wealthier, families who could afford to keep women at home did so, thinking it gave them social status. At the other extreme, people at the bottom of society are still considered potential earners. But they tend to work low or unpaid jobs away from the formal economy. In official statistics, their work is not counted.

In many countries, patriarchal values remain strong, and stigma against girls persists. Although illegal, sex-selective abortion is still common. Akhina Hansraj, senior program manager at the Akshara Center, a Mumbai-based organization that advocates for gender equity, said Indian men often think «it’s not very manly if the wife contributes to the income of the family».

«They want to create this addiction,» Hansraj said. «People believe that if women are educated, they can work and become financially independent and then they will not obey and respect the family.»

Marriage is a sticking point in India, where most marriages are still arranged. After the first block, in 2020, the main wedding website of the country reported a peak of new registrations. In some states, marriages between children and young adults – many of which are illegal under Indian law – jumped by 80%, according to government data.

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Madhu Sharma, a Hindi teacher at the Pardada Pardadi Educational Society, a girls’ school in the northern city of Anupshahr, says he can intervene in three child marriages a year. During the pandemic, when campuses are closed, the number increases three to four times.

«Before Covid, children always had a relationship with their teacher and also with me,» he said. «After Covid, when the children have to stay at home, keeping in touch with them is a big challenge.»

Financial considerations often tip the scale in favor of marriage. Social distancing and warnings against large gatherings mean the elderly can hold smaller, cheaper ceremonies at home, rather than the multi-day celebrations common even in the poorest pockets of society. During the worst of the pandemic, some families married girls because they could not afford to feed another.

For Sharma’s students, getting married before finishing school can change the trajectory of their lives. In India, when a woman gets married, she usually moves in with her husband and son-in-law. It can be difficult to leave a remote country where the police are a common option and job opportunities are rare.

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«We try to educate our students,» Sharma said. «We explain to them that if they study, they will be in a good place. If not, we explain how their position will be. «The rest is up to you», we tell them. Live life as you want. to create it.»

In 2015, Modi started a campaign called ‘Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao’, which means ‘Save our daughters, educate our daughters’. This is an initiative aimed at keeping girls in school and reducing sex-selective abortions. The government also tried to eradicate child marriage. Last year, the Modi administration passed a proposal to raise the legal age of marriage for women from 18 to 21, which is for men.

But in many countries, national law is a distant abstraction. Local customs are still defined and enforced by the local panchayat, basically a group of elders, almost all men. And during Modi’s campaign to educate Indians

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